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WEATHER WATCH: Could changes to ocean currents signal change of weather in Wick?





Weather Watch by Keith Banks

A perspective of Thurso Harbour, and Thurso castle, July 24. Note the layer of Altocumulus opacus. Picture: Brenda A Sutherland
A perspective of Thurso Harbour, and Thurso castle, July 24. Note the layer of Altocumulus opacus. Picture: Brenda A Sutherland

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms part of a global conveyor belt of ocean currents that help to regulate temperatures around the world.

The AMOC carries warm water northwards to the high latitudes from the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean.

Ominously, however, climatic models produced by researchers suggest that the AMOC will weaken as the 21st century progresses, as greenhouse gases continue to increase.

Increases in precipitation, together with accelerating ice melt from the Greenland glaciers, indicate that the North Atlantic will become less salty as a consequence. These changes will make the ocean water less dense, leading to a weaker AMOC.

The AMOC brings tropical heat to all latitudes that encompass the British Isles. The warm oceanic water cools only slowly, and during the winter in particular, this is a significant factor, in terms of helping create a climate that is warmer and wetter than it would otherwise be.

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Indeed the AMOC helps average temperatures in British Isles to be warmer than those of many locations at similar latitudes in the northern hemisphere, such as Moscow and some regions of Canada and southern Alaska.

The AMOC is already believed to be 15 per cent weaker than it was in the 1950s, and some researchers have postulated that a collapse of the AMOC is a real possibility if global warming accelerates.

If it did breakdown, elements of the scientific community believe that the British Isles could witness average temperatures fall by as much as 3C, coupled with a substantial drop in precipitation.

A review of Wick’s historic record for mean air temperature for July showed that July 2024 was the coolest since that of 2020.

However, it is currently the town’s 39th equal warmest in a series commencing 1910. The royal burgh’s average air temperature was identical in July 2017.

In terms of precipitation, July 2024 was the least wet since that of 2022. However, closer scrutiny of a series of Julys stretching back to 1910 revealed that it is presently the 42nd most wet.

Wick’s mean air temperature for July 2024 was 12.95C (55.31F). The long-term average for July in terms of the averaging period 1991-2020 is 13.14C (55.65F).

Wick’s average daytime maximum air temperature for July 2024 was 15.89C (60.60F), 0.27C lower than the current long-term average for the month.

The highest maximum was 20.8C (69.4F), recorded on July 29. Maximums of 20.5C (68.9F) and 19.5C (67.1F), witnessed on July 20 and 25 respectively, were also noteworthy for the town.

Lowest maximum was 11.7C (53.1F), noted on July 10.

Wick’s average overnight minimum air temperature for the month was 10.01C (50.02F). The long-term average, in terms of the current 30-year averaging period, is 10.11C (50.20F).

Highest overnight minimum was 14.7C (58.5F), observed on July 20. Lowest overnight minimum was 5.7C (42.3F), noted on July 8.

The lowest temperature recorded at 5cm over the grass was 4.6C (40.3F), recorded on July 9.

Precipitation was measurable on 27 dates. The total for the month was 68.4mm (2.69 inches) or 111.0 per cent of the long-term average for the month.

Wettest day was July 20. The amount logged for the 24 hours commencing 9am (GMT) was 19.6mm (0.77 of an inch).

There were no “days of gale” recorded during the month.

The windiest day was July 1 when a force 6 north-westerly wind gusted up to 40.0mph/34.8knots, gale force 8 on the Beaufort scale during the hour ending 3pm (GMT).


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