Cutting teachers could save £500m a year as pupil numbers fall, report suggests

The Scottish Government has been urged to consider cutting teacher numbers as schools look set to lose 90,000 pupils.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the number of young people in school will decrease 12.5% by 2040.

The Government has pledged to keep teacher numbers at their 2023 level for the foreseeable future.

However, in its latest report on Scottish education, the IFS said while that would result in lower class sizes, evidence suggested it would have only a “modest impact” on attainment.

The independent think tank said keeping teacher numbers in line with pupils could save the Government £500 million a year by 2040.

The IFS said councils could funnel this money into other areas in need of cash, such as social care, as local authorities face “an increasingly tight funding environment”.

Many councils are considering cuts to education, with the EIS union announcing strike action by teachers in Glasgow although on Thursday it said it has suspended the planned walkout following an offer from the council to withdraw education cuts.

The IFS said day-to-day school spending in Scotland has increased 27% since 2015 and is currently at £10,000 a year per pupil, the highest in the UK and 20% more than in England.

Class sizes are lower in Scotland with an average of around 13-14 pupils per teacher, compared to the rest of the UK at 17-19 pupils per teacher.

Class sizes in Scotland are expected to fall to just 12 by 2040 if current teacher numbers are maintained, the lowest point in recent history.

The IFS warned the Government that a “one-size-fits-all” approach to teacher numbers may not work, particularly in rural and island schools.

But it said: “Given both the financial context and concerns about declining school standards in Scotland, it will be vital to maximise the value for money of school spending.

“Allowing teacher numbers to fall in line with pupil numbers would instead release funding that could be used for other priorities.

“This would be small in the short run, about £65–120 million by 2027, but could amount to an annual saving of £500 million in today’s terms by 2040.

“At the same time, policymakers face challenges from rising levels of additional needs, new teachers struggling to find jobs, recruitment shortfalls for secondary teachers, and over-recruitment of primary teachers.”

Darcey Snape, a research economist at the IFS and an author of the report, said: “With class sizes already low in Scotland, cutting teacher numbers in line with the projected fall in pupil numbers could in principle free up funds for spending elsewhere, for schools or other areas of council budgets.

The evidence suggests smaller class sizes only tend to have modest effects on pupil attainment

“These savings may be particularly valuable in the context of what looks like a tight financial outlook over the coming years for both the Scottish Government and Scottish councils.

“The evidence also suggests that smaller class sizes only tend to have modest effects on pupil attainment, suggesting that if improving attainment is the Scottish Government’s priority, further reductions in class sizes may not be the most cost-effective way of doing so.

“There would inevitably be practical difficulties associated with reducing the number of teachers as pupil numbers fall – such as amalgamating classes and schools.

“However, arguably, local councils are best placed to make decisions over school and teacher numbers in their areas, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach across Scotland.

“The Scottish Government could then focus on engaging with councils to ensure that training and recruitment of teachers better align with locally identified needs and on ways to improve the quality of teaching and learning across Scotland.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat education spokesman Willie Rennie said: “The Scottish Government have made a complete pig’s ear of workforce planning for teachers.

“Too many good teachers are stuck on supply lists or short-term contracts, unable to find permanent employment.

“At the same time, there is a shortage of teachers in more rural parts of the country and in key subjects like sciences and languages.

“Education has become the SNP’s flagship failure. That’s why we need a change of government to get Scottish education back to its best.”

Dr Patrick Roach, general secretary of the NASUWT teachers’ union, rejected the report’s recommendations, saying they could “damage” the life chances of young people.

He said: “This report stands at odds with the generality of evidence from leading education countries which confirms that high investment in children’s education improves opportunity, outcomes and life chances.

“Cutting teacher numbers would not only damage life chances, it would be a false economy that would have impacts in the long term on Scotland’s future prosperity.

“Using changes in pupil numbers to justify cutting teacher numbers is not only short-changing children, it is based on a fallacy that there are already optimal numbers of teachers in schools.

“Every parent would agree that investing more in teachers will reap rewards for children’s education, where teachers are better supported to do the job and pupils are better supported in their learning.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The Education Secretary has been clear that the Scottish Government is determined to continue to drive improvements in our schools.

“Teachers will play a central role in these efforts and ministers would not support any suggestions that teacher numbers should be cut.

“That is why we are increasing funding for local authorities to £186.5 million this year, as part of an agreement with Cosla to restore teacher numbers to 2023 levels, freeze learning hours and make meaningful progress to reduce class contact time.

“We are also delivering a package of £28 million to employ more specialist staff and teachers to support additional support needs (ASN) in schools and a further £1 million to support national initiatives to help recruit and train more ASN teachers.”