Supreme Kazeem to redeem himself in Arc
AS the sun glistens over a rain-sodden Paris, the curtain is set to be brought down on yet another year's flat racing this weekend with Europe's premier flat race, the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe.
Despite still having British Champions Day, the Breeders Cup and the Melbourne Cup in the not so distant future, for me it's always been Arc weekend that represents the denouement of the flat season each autumn.
As we look back over a fantastic summer's action, it's two jockeys at opposite ends of their careers that have really set the season alight in 2013. Johnny Murtagh has shone brightly in what is now the twilight of his great career, while James Doyle has made rapid progress to the head of the weighing room, fast becoming one of Europe's most sought after jockeys. Both have fantastic chances of taking home the Arc De Triomphe spoils aboard Novellist and Al Kazeem respectively.
German-trained Novellist blew his rivals away in the King George at Ascot earlier this year, smashing the course record in the process. He's won on varying surfaces ranging from good to firm to soft. Although versatile, for me he's never quite shown that same 'wow' factor when there's cut in ground which could raise a question mark around whether he will be able to find that extra gear against better rivals.
Al Kazeem is one who'll surely relish the conditions on Sunday. He has three group 1 wins to his name this term with solid placed efforts on his last two runs. Those efforts have slightly overshadowed a fine year though, and for one who'd be expected to have conditions in his favour on Sunday, in addition to looking likely to appreciate the step up in trip, current odds of 16/1 look far too big. He's also unbeaten going right-handed which is surely another factor worth considering.
The favourite for the race and runner-up last year, Orfevre, looks to have all the talent and ability in the world and ran away with the Prix Foy on Arc trials day. He is a bit of a lit fuse at times however, quite often ruining his chance, as he did in this last year. For that reason I couldn't get involved at around 5/2 in what looks to be a hot renewal.
The French filly Treve heads the 3 year old challenge this year and remains unbeaten in her four starts thus far, including when running away with the Prix De Diane (French Oaks) in course record time back in June. That form has been franked since, with the second that day, Chicquita, going on to take the Irish Oaks at the Curragh. Despite looking like a fine filly, the thing that sticks in my brain is trainer Criquette Head-Maarek's recent comment that were it not for the horse coming under new ownership, she wouldn't have run her again this season as she didn't think she'd be ready for it. The underlying issue here is that trainers know their horses, not owners. It mirrors the Sheikh Mohammed/Jim Bolger/Dawn Approach fiasco in the Derby and look how that ended.
Whilst on the subject of the Derby, Aidan O'Brien sends his Epsom hero Ruler Of The World to Longchamp to take his chance. After disappointing in the Irish equivalent it had appeared that the Ballydoyle star had been cast to one side. However, after a fine reappearance in the Prix Niel on trials day, finishing just in behind another fancied runner Kizuna despite a difficult run, it looks as though he's been well managed with a tilt at Sunday's showpiece in mind. He's another who looks overpriced having lost to the Japanese horse by no more than a nostril despite looking unlucky in-running.
To conclude, I'd make Al Kazeem my main fancy for this and will be having a little bit on him myself. Now we just cross our fingers for a good draw! Main opposition could come from German runner Novellist, whilst Ruler Of The World represents decent each-way value.
