JAMIE STONE: What comes next after tumultuous year in politics?
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Jamie's Journal by Jamie Stone
I hold my hands up, I am not the political soothsayer I once thought I was. As a very young man in 1979, I bet a bottle of whisky that Maggie Thatcher would not win the election. Hah! Got that one wrong.
But then in more recent years, and although it was some time before I was to embark on my own political journey, I started to get things right. Charles Kennedy's shock victory in 1983 started something.
Then the youngest MP in the House of Commons, it soon became apparent (at least to my eyes) that he was part of the way forward for his party.
So it proved to be, and in his last election as party leader, he won 62 seats – a figure that remains the best performance until today.
During the months before the 1997 election, the feeling of disillusionment with the Conservative government was quite tangible. People going about their lives, doing their shopping, chatting on the street corner, at their desks at work, had the same message, "Och! Enough of this lot. It's time for change."
So it was that in 1997, Tony Blair and the Labour party swept to an historic victory. One that was to be repeated in the two subsequent elections. The age of "Cool Britannia" was the age of Tony Blair, and I believe that the history books will say this for a very long time to come.
At this point, I should probably hold my hands up for a second time and say that I sensed that my party getting into bed with the Conservatives after the 2010 election might well prove to be a near-death experience. That too turned out to be the case, when my party's seats fell from 57 to eight in 2015.
You might think that I'm feeling rather pleased with myself as I sip my tea and look out on an outstandingly hot day in the Highlands, but the truth is that that is not how it is at all.
You see, I don't know what is going to happen in the future. Is this something to do with the fact that I have the smallest majority of any sitting MP in Scotland? Or that a puff of political breeze could very easily have me picking up my P45? Perhaps.
But while that may be true, it is the sheer extraordinary political situation in both the Scottish and UK parliaments that leaves me scratching my head.
That the last year has been turmoil is an understatement. Prime Ministers seem like passing buses; waiting so long for one and then three come at once. Albeit that the "Liz Truss" bus was hardly at the stop before it was away again.
Then we had the turmoil in Westminster in the SNP. A palace revolution that led to a complete change of the top brass, one that was followed by a number of well-known SNP MPs announcing that they wouldn't be standing again.
And then, having digested all this change, we had the tumultuous events of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation; missing public money, a number of arrests, and a war between her supporters and those of a portly gentleman living in an old mill in the Aberdeenshire village of Strichen – Alex Salmond. Not to mention the leadership election for our First Minister in Holyrood.
So, I end where I began. In 1979, I thought I knew which way the cookie would crumble, but I was wrong. They say that with age comes wisdom. Well, if I have any wisdom today, it is to say that I simply cannot predict what will happen at the next general election.
The messages I am getting from conversations on the doorsteps do show a certain level of friendliness towards myself (if I may say so!) but also a huge degree of uncertainty as to what people will think nationally.
Will the SNP be reduced to single figures in Westminster? Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party to a victory as big as Blair's in 1997? Or will it be a hung parliament? I'm simply not sure.
My piece of advice to readers is to watch the next series of by-elections very closely. They might just indicate a trend.
I may be getting long in the tooth for politics, but I tell you what. It's never been more fascinating.
- Jamie Stone is the Liberal Democrat MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.
