Caithness population expected to fall by 9.3 per cent over the next 10 years
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Caithness is expected to have the biggest population decline in the Highland Council area over the next decade.
The county's population will fall by 9.3 per cent, according to latest projections.
That would be the biggest rate of decline of all 10 “sub-council areas” in the region during the period from the end of 2018/19 until 2029/30, with Sutherland having the next largest projected drop of minus 7.4 per cent.
Over that same timescale the overall Highland figure would rise by 0.4 per cent.
The prospect of declining numbers of people in the far north comes as a new report reveals that Scotland’s population was at a record high at 5.46 million in 2019.
The document from National Records of Scotland (NRS) says the country’s population is projected to increase by two per cent over the 10-year period from mid-2018, and rise by a further 0.7 per cent to mid-2043 when the population could be 5.57 million. At this point, "growth could stall", says NRS.
The population of Caithness is projected to fall by more than 2100 from 25,242 at the end of 2018/19 to 23,060 by 2029/30. Over the same period, Sutherland's population would go down from 13,403 to 12,482.
The list of 10 Highland “sub-council areas” would see growth in Mid Ross (4.6 per cent), Inverness (4.5), Nairn (4.4), Badenoch and Strathspey (3.6) and Skye and Lochalsh (0.9), with declining populations in Ross and Cromarty West (-2.4), Lochaber (-2.8), East Ross (-4.4), Sutherland (-7.4) and Caithness (-9.3).
The projection for Highland as a whole is a rise of 0.4 per cent from 235,793 people at the end of 2018/19 to 236,414 by 2029/30.
In March last year it emerged that Highland Council's corporate plan projected a 21 per cent decrease in the Caithness population by 2041. Chief executive Donna Manson said at the time that one of the council's key priorities was depopulation and its impact on the county.
The new NRS statistics show that in 2019 Scotland had the lowest number of births since records began in 1855, with fewer than 50,000 registered. The number of marriages registered was also at an all-time low of just over 26,000.
Deaths in Scotland outnumbered births for the fifth consecutive year, while the number of households is growing faster than the population, with one in five people now living alone.
Life expectancy had been improving for decades but has seen very little change over the past five years, according to NRS.
The report also provides an analysis of Scotland's deaths involving Covid-19 from March to September.
Pete Whitehouse, NRS director of statistical services, said: “This report provides a review of statistics, trends and analysis of Scotland’s population for 2019. Given the impact of Covid-19, we have included the latest analysis of deaths involving Covid-19.
“The report describes how the number of deaths involving Covid-19 increased sharply in the first six weeks of the pandemic, before falling again, with numbers remaining very low since July.
“More than three quarters of deaths were among those aged 75 and over and, after taking age into account, people were more likely to die with Covid-19 if they were male, if they lived in an urban area, or lived in a deprived area.
“Alongside this, the statistics highlight a number of firsts for our population in 2019, prior to the pandemic. The population was at its highest, and births and marriages were the lowest ever recorded."
He added: “Understanding Scotland’s population plays an important role in monitoring the impact of Covid-19, and allowing us to analyse the effect of the pandemic."
The full publication, Scotland's Population 2019 – The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends , is available on the NRS website.
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