Sayings are not a reliable way to forecast the weather
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Weather Watch by Keith Banks
There are a numerous sayings and rhymes that relate to the weather that could be used for forecasting. However, a forecast that is based upon these maxims and adages should always be treated with more than a modicum of caution, and relied upon only for relatively short periods of time.
The bountiful trove of proverbs and aphorisms that have been amassed down the ages are known as weather lore.
"Rain before seven, fine before eleven" is reliable in so far as rain bearing fronts associated with depressions usually last only a few hours. There is no significance to the hours of seven to eleven.
Sky colour is often quoted, such as "Red sky in the morning, shepherds' warning". This dictum refers to the unobscured sun in the east shining on the undersides of frontal cloud that is advancing from the west, indicating that rain or snow may be on the way.
However, red sky can occur with non frontal clouds, and it is far more reliable to observe their shapes and note nuances if there is any sequence of clouds.
Abundant berries in the autumn are often cited as a portent of a hard winter. Nevertheless, there is no credible evidence that a bumper berry crop has anything more than a refection of the weather conditions that were prevalent during the summer. Indeed, in the context of the weather, a copious yield of berries should be deemed an example of hindcasting, not forecasting.
October 2021 was Wick's mildest since that of 2017. Closer analysis of the town's historic record for mean air temperature for October showed that it is currently the 25th most mild in a series stretching back to 1910.
Last month was Wick's least wet October since that of 2019. However, October 2021 is presently the 24th wettest in a series commencing from 1910.
In terms of wind, there were no "days of gale" recorded during the month.
Wick's mean air temperature for October 2021 was 9.85C (49.73F). The long-term average, in terms of the averaging period 1981-2010, is 8.95C (48.11F).
Wick's average maximum daytime air temperature for October 2021 was 12.33C (54.19F). The long-term average is 11.60C (52.88F). Highest maximum was 17.9C (64.2F), recorded on October 8. This value proved to be the burgh's warmest day for any October since that of 1997.
On October 5, 1997, the temperature in the town peaked at 18.5C (65.3F).
Lowest maximum was 8.0C (46.4F), observed on October 21.
The town's average overnight minimum air temperature for October 2021 was 7.37C (45.27F). The long-term average for October is presently 6.30C (43.34F). The highest overnight minimum air temperature for the month was 13.6C (56.5F), recorded on October 9.
The lowest air temperature for the period was 1.2C (34.2F), logged on October 12.
The temperature fell to 0.0C (32.0F), or lower at 5cm over the grass on two dates. The lowest temperature noted over the grass was minus 1.8C (28.8F), on October 25.
Precipitation was measurable on 30 dates. The total for the month was 111.4mm (4.39 inches), or 117.4 per cent of the current long-term average amount fro October. The wettest day was October 29. The quantity recorded for the 24 hours commencing 9am (GMT), was 19.8mm (0.78 of an inch).
Wind velocities reached or exceeded gale force 8 (39.0mph/33.9knots), on 10 dates. The strongest wind velocity observed occurred during the hour ending 10pm (GMT), on October 21, when a force 5 west-north-west wind gusted up to 51.8mph/45.0knots, severe gale force 9 on the Beaufort scale.
